Financial Forecasting

PATIENT, MANUFACTURING AND REVENUE FORECASTING IN PAEDIATRIC EPILEPSY
SCOPE: : EU + Australia + Can + JP

BACKGROUND
Company: US company with little structure in EU.
Indications: 4 subtypes of rare pediatric epilepsy.

PROJECT OBJECTIVE
To model patient uptake calculation, revenues and unit forecasts across the 4 indications and over a number of possible business scenarios.

APPROACH

• Elaboration of inputs from primary research conducted on 4 physician types involved in the treatment of the pathologies.
• Integration of inputs into the model, by elaborating likely uptake and price sensitivity scenarios, current and future competition impact and market share erosion projections.
• Analysis of possible early access program scenarios in the main European countries and of their impact on manufacturing needs.
• Analysis of possible revenues from off-label prescriptions, quantified through secondary research.
• Sensitivity analysis examining the impact of selected variables on interest on forecast results.

OUTPUT

An Excel forecasting model was released, together with a user training and a results slide deck, allowing the company to analyze the impact of different launch scenarios across the indications.